诺奖得主萨金特在伯克利的毕业演讲:经济学智慧12条-基金-热点资讯-野望文存 财经 
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诺奖得主萨金特在伯克利的毕业演讲:经济学智慧12条

发表时间:2019-02-11 00:00:00  来源:野望文存  浏览:次   【】【】【



作者:萨金特

翻译:陈达飞

来源:一瓣(ID:yibanshuping)


本文为诺奖得主萨金特(Sargent)2007年在美国加州大学伯克利分校的毕业演讲,也号称是“史上最短的毕业演讲”,只有短短12条“常识性总结”,每一条都值得好好推敲。


I remember how happy I felt when I graduated from Berkeley many years ago. But I thought the graduation speeches were long. I will economize on words.


我还记得许多年前我从伯克利大学毕业时的快乐心情,但是我认为毕业演讲很长,我要言简意赅。


Economics is organised common sense. Here is a short list of valuable lessons that our beautiful subject teaches.


经济学是组织化的常识性学科。以下是我们这门美丽的学科教给我们的宝贵经验。


1. Many things that are desirableare not feasible.


理想是丰满的,现实是骨感的。


2. Individuals and communities facetrade-offs.


个人和群体面临权衡取舍。


3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do.


没有人比他们自己更了解他们的能力、努力和偏好。


4. Everyone responds to incentives,including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t alway send up working as intended.


每个人都会对激励做出反应,包括你想帮助的人。这就是为什么社会安全网并不总是如预期那样发挥作用。


5. There are tradeoffs between equality and efficiency.


平等和效率之间是有权衡的。


6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well-meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse.


在博弈或经济的均衡中,人们对自己的选择感到满意。这就是为什么善意的局外人很难改变现状,无论是向着好的方向,还是向着坏的方向。


7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it willnot be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make apromise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation.


未来,你也会对激励做出反应。这就是为什么有些承诺你想许下却无法兑现。没有人会相信这些承诺,因为他们知道,以后兑现这些承诺不符合你的利益。这里的经验是:在你做出承诺之前,想一想如果环境发生变化,你是否愿意遵守它。这就是你赢得声誉的方式。


8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why governments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have made.


政府和选民也会对激励措施做出反应。这就是为什么政府有时会拖欠贷款或违背其他已经做出承诺。


9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore).


一代人把成本转移到下一代人身上是可行的。这就是政府债务和美国社会保障体系(而不是新加坡的社会保障体系)的。


10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.


当政府花钱时,最终买单的将是人民。无论是今天还是明天,要么通过显性税收,要么通过通胀等隐性税收。


11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves).


大多数人希望其他人为公共产品和政府转移支付买单(尤其是对他们自己的转移支付)。


12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates.


由于市场价格综合了交易者的信息,因此很难预测股票价格、利率和汇率。


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